November 26, 2014
by Dakota Antelman
With their offensive game made considerably better in the wake of this week’s Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez signings, the Red Sox have turned their focus to their biggest remaining weakness; pitching. Their options are plentiful but as time goes on, the once likely concept of a Jon Lester return to Boston is starting to become questionable.
Needless to say, though their chances with Lester have slightly lessened, their need for a high quality pitcher to anchor their staff has not.
If the Red Sox are to succeed next season they will need an ace. They will not find that ace within their current roster or their farm system. As a result, they will need to either acquire said ace through free agency or the trade market.
In terms of free agent options, the Red Sox are in a way lucky. There is an extremely seasoned crop of veteran pitchers searching for contract this offseason. Names like Max Scherzer and James Sheilds highlight that respectable group.
Scherzer and Sheilds both have an ERA under 3.5 and have shown that they are truly capable of shouldering major innings. Their ability to play those long games is characteristic of the kind of ace the Red Sox want. But at the same time, Scherzer’s recent Cy Young win as well as his being the two time defending AL Wins Champion gives him great leverage in forcing teams to give him much more money than they may want to give him. The same could be said for Shields who just recently proved his effectiveness in the playoffs with a dominant playoff run with the Royals.
The Red Sox are not afraid to pay big money. But at the same time they seem to have some strong misgivings about delving into either the Scherzer or the Sheilds market.
As of now, the most likely target for Boston, should they fail to sign Lester, would be a player currently under contract. Looking at the trade market, the options are even more bountiful.
Headliners include Reds pitcher, Johnny Cueto, Mariners’ Hisashi Iwakuma, and White Sox ace, Chris Sale.
Of those three, Sale is statistically superior with an ERA that is almost a full run less than Cueto’s and roughly .8 runs less than Iwakuma’s. However, with the Red Sox possibly shopping either infielder Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Bets or Yoenis Cespedes, a defensively competent White Sox team would likely be reluctant to deal its best pitcher for an unproven prospect and a one dimensional slugger.
With that in mind, the Red Sox are yet to engage in trade talks with the Reds, Mariners, or White Sox. However, the one team and therefore player the Sox have expressed great interest in is Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels.
Earlier this week, Philadelphia baseball reporter Jeff Passan said via Twitter that if the Red Sox miss out on Lester, “Boston's desire for an ace will make a Cole Hamels trade very likely.”
Hamels pitched to a 2.46 ERA last season and has logged 200+ innings in each of his last five seasons. He would work for the Sox although, in order to get him, the team would likely have to part ways with either Xander Bogaerts or Mookie Betts or both.
In the end, the Red Sox could go any one of many ways in the ever changing landscape of this year’s free agent and trade markets. But of the vast array of MLB teams looking for pitchers this offseason, the Red Sox, by virtue of their now immense depth offensively do definitely have an advantage should they go for a trade.
The opposite is true if they try to pay their way into a big money free agent deal as Boston is now just a few million dollars away from activating the luxury tax.
All fears would be settled nonetheless, if Boston could get Jon Lester back. He is proven in the system and is coming off the best season of his career. Fans love him. His former Boston teammates love him just as much as management does.
Lester is the Red Sox' priority, he is their favorite candidate.
To paraphrase Wizard of Oz, the road to Lester is the yellow brick road. The roads to their secondary options are those other colors that nobody sings about.
